Anomalous Weather/Climate Science

Indonesian Floods, early 2007

THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE
Concerned scientists the world over have developed what is known as the Precautionary Principle. The Precautionary Principle states that, in the face of scientific uncertainty, humyns must take precautionary action. Shift the burden of proof onto the perpetrator. With any proposed course of action (or inaction) that may engender any possible harm to Life, 3 questions must be critically and thoroughly addressed:

-Is this harm preventable?

-Are there any alternatives?

-Do we know enough to act?

If these crucial questions cannot be definitively answered-then we should NOT move forward with the proposed action!

The mission of this working group is to monitor the Earth’s weather and climate for purposes of understanding the changes that global warming will bring, to aid researchers and planners in their efforts to understand and develop responses to the implications of climate change, and-perhaps most of all-to keep climate change activists in tune w/ Nature Herself as the great changes invariably ensue. The rules are changing-and our previous experiences with seasonal and geographical climates, weather patterns, and weather extremes and abnormalities will likely bear little resemblance to the new climate and weather regimes that have already begun taking shape around the world. To the best of our abilities we must study the new unfolding patterns and try to anticipate what changes will ultimately occur where and when and through what set of processes-if we want to successfully plan and implement efforts to ensure the survival of as many species (including humans) as possible in all bio-regions on Earth. Natives, scientists, researchers, educators, students, activists, community planners, farmers and workers, health-care providers and many more will want to track weather and climate developments as they occur and unfold in order to help their communities prepare for inevitable and unstoppable changes.

The New Mother Nature’s Takin’ Over-& She’s Gettin’ Us All!

To learn more about this working group, please contact:

stormf5@riseup.net

Links to other orgs tracking anomalous weather and climate science:
www.realclimate.org
www.climatehotmap.org
www.newsscientist.com
www.ssec.wisc.edu/data

Moderated climate listserv:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ClimateConcern/

Funded by London-based Conserve Africa. Moderated by a Canadian.
Watched by agencies,individuals and organizations around the globe.

3 BASIC PRINCIPLES

1 – “The structural relations within and between human societies and
their environments form the most complex systems known to science.”
Charles D. Laughlin and Ivan Brady, editors, Extinction and Survival
in Human Populations.

2 – “Making connections is the essence of scientific progress.”
Chris Quigg, “Aesthetic Science,” Scientific American, April 1999

3 – “Ignorance of remote causes disposeth men to attribute all events
to the causes immediate and instrumental: for these are all the
causes they perceive.” Thomas Hobbes

“The catastrophic impacts of climate change are not only going to take place in the distant future. They are taking place now.” Continue Reading »

by Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON – Climate change has already caused “visible impacts” in the United States and poses particular risks to the U.S. agriculture and energy industries, a new government report said on Tuesday. Continue Reading »

Lynas’ Book: Six Degrees

Mark Lynas slogged through scads of climate research, and lumped all the
reports that reported consequences of global heating of 1 degree Celsius
(above pre-industrial levels) into one group. Then he lumped all the
papers reporting consequences of global heating of 2 Celsius, then 3
Celsius, then 4, then 5, then 6.

The result is a book: Six Degrees. Own it. Lynas’ book is as nice a
wrap-up of the research as you can get. Minimum jargon, except where it’s
essential, and then he explains it clearly as he moves along.

I just skimmed quickly through chapter one, on the consequences of a 1
degree bump. Nobody thinks it will stop there. In fact, report after
report in the past couple years cites evidence that we can’t avoid getting
into the 2 degree territory.

We don’t want to get to 2, and especially don’t want to get past it. The
consequences will be anything but cheery.  Responding to the seriousness
of a 2 degree increase, and the evidence that we can’t duck it, the
august, esteemed Proceedings of the National Academy of Science recently
published an article under a title asking if we should stop worrying and
start panicking.

Having read many of the climate science reports, the chapters I read most
closely in Six Degrees were chapters two and three, where Lynas describes
what we can expect as the heating proceeds into the realm of 2 and, then,
3 degrees. But don’t be dismissive about 4, a level of heating that’s
certainly within reach. And while you’re at it, have a look at chapters
five and six, because that’s not out of the question, either.

I noticed a few times when Lynas took some poetic license with the trends
he describes, using language more colorful and explicit than scientists
usually use in public. But I saw nothing in his book that went too far.
When an author is describing trends with grave consequence, he errs more
by pulling punches than by being too hard-hitting.

Lance Olsen

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A new entry titled ‘Environmental reporters ought to be more responsible too’ has been posted to RealClimate.org.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=635

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Ice Age Blast From Space ‘Ravaged America,’ Initiated Cooling Period:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6676461.stm

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Update: Airline Traffic & Climate

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“Hong’s work doesn’t prove that the contrails have no effect on temperature, just that they are unlikely to have a major role, says Ulrich Schumann, director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the German Aerospace Center in Oberpfaffenhofen, near Munich.”

“Because Hong’s analysis studied high-level clouds in general-and not contrails in particular-Travis says that specific conclusions cannot be drawn about the role of contrails from the survey.”
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Nature 31 December 2008
doi:10.1038/news.2008.1335

Can aircraft trails affect climate?

Grounding planes after the 11 September attacks may not have caused unusual temperature effects.

Anna Barnett

When all commercial air traffic in the United States was grounded after the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, scientists got an unexpected opportunity to test ideas about the climate effects of the condensation trails left behind by jets.

Continue Reading »

CO2, Oceans, Human Extinction Risk

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“Quite a lot is known, and very little is reassuring.”

“The remedies are not hard to grasp. Politicians, however, are supine.” “Yet the mass extinction, however remote, that should be concentrating minds is that of mankind. It is not wise to dismiss it where CO2 emissions, the other great curse of the oceans, are concerned.”
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The Economist Dec 30th 2008

The oceans

A sea of troubles

Man is assaulting the oceans. They will smite him if he does not take care

NOT much is known about the sea, it is said; the surface of Mars is better mapped. But 2,000 holes have now been drilled in the bottom, 100,000 photographs have been taken, satellites monitor the five oceans and everywhere floats fitted with instruments rise and fall like perpetual yo-yos. Quite a lot is known, and very little is reassuring.

Continue Reading »

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